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What Happens If Greece Does not Get a Bailout?

  

After the Greek parliament on Sunday Passed Yet Another package of austerity by ict Measures Demanded Euro-zone neighbors - this one worth $ 4.4 billion - the path Seemed clear to Finalizing a long-delayed second bailout of the country totaling $ 170 trillion. Well, it turns out the Greek Was not Enough to Satisfy vote skeptical Euro-zone leaders. Instead of pinning down the bailout details, European Finance Ministries Have Reopened The Entire plan to bail out Greece. A Debate is now raging Among Euro-zone Countries over whether or not a second bailout Makes Any sense at all. The basic problem Apparently Is That There Is A Growing belief In Some northern European members - Such as Germany and Finland - that Greece's Politicians will never Be able of Implementing Reforms, whatever promises are made now, so a new bailout Would End Up Being a waste of money. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble Publicly Questioned The Commitment to Politicians of Greece's upcoming election réforme After year.

When this latest twist in the debt crisis Will resolve soi is unclear. Greek Politicians are scrambling to find yet more budget cuts to appease Their Euro-zone partners. Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, Said That Will Come a resolution in a meeting of Finance Ministers on Monday. Purpose There Is That a final decision talk on the bailout may not Be taken Until early March, maybe Even later, or the bailout That Might Be Into share split up, with Some facing postponements. The Doubts and disagreements Have Exposed the widening divisions and distrust the Ongoing debt crisis is cracking open in the Monetary Union. On Wednesday, Greek President Karolos Papoulias lashed out at Greece's Critics in Germany and Elsewhere. "We are all Obliged to work hard to get through this crisis, we aim cannot accept insults from Mr. Schäuble, "blasted the president." Who is Mr. Schäuble insult to Greece? Who are thesis Dutchmen, Finns Who Are These? We Have always Defended not only the freedom of Our Own Country, aim the freedom of Europe. "(PHOTO: Anti-Austerity Protests Roil Athens.)

Hey , Was not Supposed To Be the euro year instrument for peace and democracy? I guess that's not the one billion CASE WHEN $ 170 is on the table. The Possibility That Greece may not get bailout forex icts the outlook for the euro area Dramatically. Without That rescue money, Would Almost Certainly Greece default, probably in March. And what would the consequences be? There's a not-so-bad scenario, a bad scenario and year absolutely catastrophic scenario

... ...... First, the not-so-bad outcome: Would Greeks Suffer terribly, intended to damage the rest of the euro zone Would Be Limited. Many of Us Have Been Questioning the wisdom of a second bailout of Greece for a while statement. Europe's leaders are really just playing catch-up on this idea. The has-been thinking That Greece needs a full-on reboot icts of economy, not more bailout loans. Another rescue Would not bring Greece's debt down to sustainable Levels anyway, and Its calculations are based on unrealistic Assumptions about the Greek government's Ability to Deliver on Reforms and Privatization. The euro-zone scheme for a second bailout more moderate debt reduction Would only saddle the country with debts It could not pay icts and trap people in a depressed economy for a very long time of période. In Other Words, a bailout may not fixing Actually Succeed in Greece. Since the economy is now in Worse Shape Than It Was When It received icts first bailout in 2010 - with a sharply contracting GDP, A Higher debt-to-GDP ratio, and massive social upheaval - In Some Ways to a second bailout Appears Than ever make less sense. Better to just let Greece default, forcing a true debt restructuration of icts. (MORE: Italy's PM Is the Most Important Monti Man in Europe?.)

The main impetus for a second bailout has-been of the contagion effect Fears a disorderly default Greek Would Have on the Monetary Union. Purpose it Appears That Some in European government circles Believe That Those Fears are overblown. The impact of a Greek default Could Be contained, the thinking goes. Financial markets are acting on the assumption Already That Will Greece default, so There Is No surprise value. The current structure of the second bailout includes a default name in all purpose, just an Organized one - the restructuration of $ 265 million of Greek sovereign debt. Private bondholders Already Will take a 50% haircut on Greek bonds'm his restructuration, so there 's no way of Avoiding Losses at big European banks Even If a second bailout goes ahead payday loans with no fax. Of course, a Greek default Would Be disastrous for Greece. Would it destroy the Greek Banking Sector, cut Greece off from New Funding and force a drastic reduction in the size of the Greek budget. Purpose All That Will Have to happen anyway, Even with a bailout. In Other Words, if the pain Can Be Contained to Greece, why not just let Greece go and start over?

I see the logic behind this thinking. Purpose We Also Have to matter if it is as possible for Greece to Remain in the Monetary Union without a bailout. So That Takes us to the bad scenario: a Greek default forces the country out of the euro area.

Here's how That Would play out: A Greek default cuts the country off from access-to-any new funds, aim Athens Requires financing from outside the country to keep the government running. That Raises the specter of a government That Can not pay salaries or state run services (though it is possible to redirect money That Policymakers Could That Would Have Gone to debt servicing ict icts Into Paying Bills). The default wipes out aussi The Entire Greek Banking Sector, Which is holding large Amounts of government bonds, money order There Is No 'em around to recapitalize. Even Worse, Greeks of all kinds, upon hearing news of a failed bailout, bank accounts Would Their empty and send Their money out of the country. Would THEY Quickly Realize That Could mean the looming default year exit from the euro zone, and when to the drachma Returned, It Would do so at a depressed value, wiping out a hefty chunk of Their euro savings. So Greece has total meltdown of experiments icts Financial Sector. The only solution for Greece is printing money to fill in all of the holes, since the aim is a member country of the euro area, it can not print euros. That forces Greece to Withdraw from the euro zone and return to original icts currency, the drachma. The hope then in Europe Would Be That Would stop the chaos there - That the combination of the eurozone bailout fund and Commitments to the rest of members icts Would Prevent Any Other countries from leaving the area. So you'd Have Major Financial Markets in turmoil, the euro zone aims Would hold together, minus Greece.

That's not impossible. Aim at the Same Time, There Is a Chance That Could Europe's leaders miscalculate the impact a Greek default Would Have we feel in Financial Markets, and the degree of contagion can That Would result. European Politicians Have Consistently misjudged the market reaction to Their decisions in fighting the crisis. That Takes us to the really catastrophic scenario - an unraveling of the euro area Entire. It goes something like this: Let's try to imagine what would happen in after other, troubled, Euro-zone Countries if Greece defaulted. For example, Portugal. Investors worry That Have come to Portugal, like Greece, Will require a second bailout. The Portuguese, watching events unfold in Greece, Could very well lose faith in Their Own economy, as well. So head down to the Portuguese bank branches and local Their empty bank accounts of euro Their just like the Greeks, and ship them out of the country. Compounding Matters, foreign investors, fearing a Portuguese default similar to the Greek one, dump Their holdings of Portuguese debt was massive scale, Sending Costs soaring borrowing. That means clustering the euro zone Would Have to rush aid to Portugal to save it, too, from Being Forced out of the Monetary Union. And then what happens to Spain, or Italy? Oh the Humanity! (MORE: Euro Banks Swap Cash for Trash.)

How Likely is this worst-case scenario? I'm not going to Give odds here. The Fact is the fallout from a Greek default is not possible to predict. That's why in the end, if I Had to make a bet, I'd say the Greeks Will Get Their bailout. The nightmare possibilities are Simply too great for the rest of Europe to dismiss. Order to warn you, I'm not a betting man.

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What Happens If Greece Does not Get a Bailout?

Obama raising campaign cash in California

  

LOS ANGELES - President Barack Obama is opening a three-day West Coast trip with year fundraising appeal to Democrats to Mobilize for the Fall elections.

Said Obama at a Los Angeles fundraiser That "it's not Going to be cutting easier this time. It's Going To Be Harder This Time." He Told That Hundreds of fans "out there are hurting people and THEY need us to do more."

Obama WAS Attending Two fundraisers in Los Angeles on Wednesday. The first Was an outdoor fundraising reception at the home of soap opera producer Bradley Bell. A thousand people Attended, with tickets starting at $ 250.

Obama WAS aussi Attending a dinner at Bell's home co-hosted by actor Will Ferrell. Eighty people Were Expected, with tickets costing $ 35.800.

The president is holding eight fundraisers Friday-through with Other stops in San Francisco and Seattle.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further Top information. Earlier AP's story is below.

President Barack Obama is using the US resurgence of manufacturing to make history An Economic Case for re-election, touring factory floors and Promoting a made-in-America Post That Seemed to fit like history politique campaign, as it Turned Out Wednesday, lock and key.

Most presidents like to Surround Themselves with proud workers at factories, aim further Top Obama Has Gone by making the rebounding manufacturing history for key plank of election-year agenda, arguing That the increasingly service-oriented economy US Needs to make things in order to prosper in the long run. He Opened a three-day trip with a stop politique in Wisconsin, a state won handily in 2008 ET goal is Expected to pose more Difficulty For Him this year.

Called for Obama tax cuts for American Manufacturers and Higher taxes for Companies That Move overseas, laundry Hopes What He Will Be a winning campaign issue. He aussi Acknowledged That Have Many factories closed, Have Gone Their jobs overseas and a lot of them "are not going to come back."

"In a global economy, Some companies find it more Will Always pick up and profitable to do business in hand of the Other world. That's just a Fact," Said Obama at the Master Lock plant in Milwaukee. "Goal That Does not Have to mean we sit by and settle for a lesser future."

Departing Milwaukee, Obama WAS expected to Two fundraisers in Los Angeles. The first Was an outdoor fundraising reception at the home of soap opera producer Bradley Bell and His wife, Colleen. The campaign Expects 1.000 fans to expect, with tickets starting at $ 250.

Obama WAS aussi expects to dinner at Bell's home co-hosted by actor Will Ferrell and His wife, Viveca Paulin. Eighty people Were Expected, with tickets costing $ 35.800. The fundraising Will Benefit the Obama Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee for Obama's campaign and the Democratic National Committee.

When Obama talks up the economy, historical focus on manufacturing is essential ingredient year, from historical decision to rescue Chrysler and General Motors Automakers to efforts to modernize plants and retrain workers. That message Matters in places like Wisconsin.

Obama Carried by 14 Wisconsin centage points in 2008 aims HAS watched history fall popularity amid tough économique conditions. Republicans, led by Gov.. Scott Walker, Captured Nearly Every statewide office Two years ago and GOP leaders expect Obama to target Throughout The Midwest this year.

Walker infuriated Democrats with efforts to curtail collective bargaining rights and faces a recall election later in the spring or summer That Could serve as a bellwether for Obama in the state paydayloans. Said Walker HAS Would a win DELIVER a "devastating blow" to Obama's re-election campaign.

Yet He Was all smiles greeted the president ET at the airport, a Milwaukee Brewers jersey in hand as a gift.

The president hit the road with Good news politique trailing HIM. Congress HAD Reached a tentative agreement to extend a payroll tax cut That Would mean extra $ 40 per year paycheck for a typical family, along with year extension of Unemployment Benefits. The payroll tax break WAS have the heart of Obama's jobs plan.

He Suggested That a range of exchange in the tax code Could keep the momentum going. Obama HAS Sought a reduction in tax rates for Manufacturers and Proposed That Would cover tax credits for companies moving dépenses That closed production overseas and bring jobs back to the US

He Noted That Master Lock HAS Returned about 100 jobs back to the United States from China since mid-2010 in response to Higher Labor and Logistical Costs in Asia.  

"Manufacturing is coming back," Obama said. "The Economy is Getting Stronger."

Administration Officials contend manufacturing jobs are worth the investment, noting That 11 million people are employed in the Sector and Those jobs support spinoff jobs and spur a large Amount of the nation's research-and-development efforts.

At Master Lock, the factory's setting WAS perfectly scripted for a president Trying to portray a national economy on the mend After weathering historic recession year. Obama spoke in front of a backdrop of orange metal boxes stacked, Many faded and scratched, and one of the boxes WAS stamped "Made in the United States" in black-and-white letters. One of the women in the factory ET greeted Wore a black T-shirt bearing her back on the company's slogan, "Tough Under Fire."

The Manufacturing Sector HAS taken icts hits. Fifty years ago, of a Third-US jobs in manufacturing Were. Even now with the recent rebound, They account for just 9 percent, According To the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Manufacturers shed 5.8 million jobs from 1999 to 2009 Many companies have Shifted jobs overseas to take advantage of lower Costs and Many plants Were Modernized and automated, allowing companies to do more with Fewer workers.

The goal Sector HAS Shown more vitality in recent months, Bolstering Obama's box. Manufacturers added 50.000 jobs in January, The Most in a year, and added 237.000 jobs in 2011, the Largest Annual boost since 1997. Of the 3.2 million jobs added by the economy since February 2010, about 400.000 are in manufacturing.

Others note at times of high That chômage Obama's optimistic take on the economy might fall flat with people Struggling to Pay Their Bills.  

"He Has To tread a fine line here Trying to sound upbeat about the economy and any halfway decent Any statistics ET can," Said Republican National Committee chairman forming Ed Gillespie. "Aim at the Same Time, he's in risk of looking out of touch with how blue-collar workers feel about the economy, Which is not good."

Obama plans to take the manufacturing message to Washington state on Friday, touring a Boeing facility at the end of a brisk three-day trip to the West Coast That Will include eight fundraisers for historical re-election campaign.

Obama raising campaign cash in California

Hot News: Greece's grim choice: deep budget cuts or default

Eurozone set for Q4 contraction économique

  

LONDON - A run of downbeat news Tuesday économique That reinforced expectations the 17-nation euro zone's economy shrank During The last Three months of 2011 as the government debt crisis dragged on Even The Biggest and Richest countries.

During The final months of last year, financial turmoil in Europe due to Intensified Fears That the debt crisis WAS Spreading from smaller economies like Greece to larger ones like Spain and Italy. Though Those Fears Have Somewhat subsided this year, They Likely Pushed the region's economy to the verge of Another recession.

Analysts expect official figures due Friday from Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, to show That the eurozone's economy shrank by around 0.4 percent in the final Three months of 2011 only 0.1 percent After Growing In The Third Quarter.

That Would leave the euro zone with one foot in recession, Which is Officially Defined As Two consecutive quarters of Economic contraction.

Indicators released Tuesday yet more Provided Evidence That Will Be the negative headline number - another poor set of figures Eurozone industrial WAS Accompanied by Greece and Portugal That confirmation mired in deep recessions REMAIN.

Eurostat industrial production shrank That Reported by 1.1 percent in December. The decline WAS in-line with market expectations and Confirmed That the recovery in the Industrial Sector, Which has-been Largely behind the eurozone's recovery from recession overalls over the past couple of years HAS Stalled. December's decline Was The Third-monthly fall months in the oven.

"These figures offer important perspective on the year Ongoing sovereign debt crisis - the eurozone Has Failed to recover and is now backtracking injustement Than making progress," Said Tom Ohlenburg, senior economist at the Centre for Economic and Business Research in London.

The industrial figures provide statement aussi Mounting Evidence That Germany's economy has-been hit hard by the debt crisis raging around the eurozone cash advance loans. While debt-crippled Countries Such as Greece and Portugal Have Seen Their economies implode, Germany's has-been buoyant high-end he was emperor Businesses Have benefited from the rebound in global trade.

German figures on Wednesday are Expected to Show That Europe's largest economy shrank by around 0.3 percent fourth quarter FOLLOWING During The 0.5 percent expansion was in the previous quarter.

Anticipated Germany's decline is dwarfed by the scale of the recessions That continues to grip Greece and Portugal.

Greece's statistics office Tuesday Revealed That the Greek economy shrank by year Annualized rate of 7 percent on the year in the fourth quarter of 2011. Though Greece only accounts for around 2 percent of the eurozone economy and the figures have-nots beens Adjusted for seasonal factors by, They Do provide statement yet further Top evidence of the scale of the retrenchment in the country that's Struggling to Convince Creditors to give it more bailout cash.

Greece has-been shut out of long-term debt Markets since 2010, and is surviving on rescue loans from European Union countries and the International Monetary Fund. Purpose harsh austerity Measures Demanded in return for the emergency loans hammered the economy Have. Greece's economy has-been in decline since late 2008, with successive quarterly contractions since then, with the exception of the first quarter of 2010.

The latest figures for Portugal, about the size of Greece, made for grim reading aussi. Official data Showed the country's economy maturing not by 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, far more Than the 0.6 percent fall in the previous Recorded three-month extended period. Like Greece, Portugal is Relying on bailout funds to pay down debts.

Eurozone set for Q4 contraction économique

Greek coalition expels 43 Deputies on debt dissent

  

ATHENS, Greece - Greek lawmakers on Wednesday approuvé harsh new austerity Measures Demanded by Creditors bailout to save the debt-crippled nation from bankruptcy specificities, after rioters torched buildings in central Athens, looted shops and clashed with riot police.

The historic vote paves the way for Greece's European partners and the International Monetary Fund to release $ 170 billion (euro130 billion) in new rescue loans, without Which Greece Would default is ict debt mountain next month and Likely leave the eurozone - a scenario That Would roil further Top Global Markets.

Lawmakers voted 199-74 in favor of the cutbacks, despite strong dissent Among the coalition members Two hand. A total of 37 lawmakers from the Socialists and majorité conservative New Democracy party voted against-the-Either party line, abstained or voted present.

Sunday's clashes erupted After more Than 100.000 OnD protesters to the parliament to rally against-the drastic cuts, Which Will ax one in five civil service jobs and slash the minimum wage by more Than a fifth.

At least 10 buildings on fire Were, Including a movie theater, bank and cafe, and Looters smashed Dozens of shops in the worst riot damage in years. Dozens of police officers Were Injured and at least 55 protesters Were hospitalized. Forty-five rioters Suspected Were Arrested and Detained has further Top 40.

As the vote got Under way early Monday, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos urged calm, pointing to the country's Financial straits say.

"Vandalism and destruction Have No place in a democracy and Will not Be Tolerated," Papademos Told Parliament. "I call on the public to show calm. At crucial times thesis, we do not Have the luxury of this type of protest. I think everyone is aware of how serious the situation is. "

Since May 2010, Greece HAS survived were $ 145 billion (euro110 billion) bailout from European icts partners and the International Monetary Fund. When That Proved Insufficient, the new rescue package WAS approved. The deal, Which HAS not yet beens Finalized, Will Be Combined with a massive jump in swap deal to write off half the country's debt Privately Held ... Both

...... Goal for deals to materialize, Greece Has To persuade ict deeply skeptical Creditors That It Has The Will to implement Implements Spending cuts and Public Sector Reforms That Will end of fiscal years profligacy gaping budget deficits and tame As protests raged

. Sunday, demonstrators set Bonfires in front of parliament and Dozens of riot police lines to keep 'em Formed from making a run on the building. Security forces fired tear gas volleys Dozens of rioters did, Who Attacked Them with firebombs and chunks of marble broken off the fronts of luxury hotels, banks and department stores.

Clouds of tear gas Drifted across the square, And Many in the crowd Wore gas masks gold HAD Their Faces Covered, while Others Carried Greek flags and banners.

A three-story building completely Call WAS Consumed By Flames as firefighters struggled to douse the blaze. Streets Were strewn with stones, smashed glass and burnt wreckage, while terrified passers-by Sought refuge in hotel lounges and cafeterias.

"I've had it! I can not take it Any More. There's no point in living in this country Any More," Said a distraught shop owner walking-through history smashed and looted store optician.

Athens Mayor Giorgos Kaminis Said Tried to rioters storm the City Hall building, purpose Were repelled cash advance flexible payments. "Once again, the City is Being Used as a lift to try to destabilize the country, 'he said.

Conservative New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras Said the rioting "hurts the Entire Country."

"We are seeing scenes from a future That we must do our Utmost to avert, 'he said.

Papademos' government - An Unlikely coalition of the Socialists and Their hand majorité foes, New Democracy - Had beens Expected to carry the austerity vote. Combined, They control 236 of Parliament's 300 seats.

Still, They faced strong dissent: Who besides the 37 lawmakers voted against-the bill or abstained, voted Against a further Top six sections of the Proposed Measures. After the vote, the coalition government Announced Those 43 lawmakers HAD Expelled beens.

Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos Said the Measures Were vital to the country's very survival économique.  

"The issue is not whether salaries and pensions Some Will Be curtailed, whether we aim Will Be Able to Pay Reduced thesis Even WAGES and pensions, 'he said. "When you Have to choose Between Bad and Worse, You Will pick what is bad is what to Avoid Worse."

The new cutbacks, Which follow Two Years of harsh revenu Losses and tax hikes amid a deep recession and record high chômage Have Been Demanded by Greece's bailout Creditors in return for a new batch of vital rescue loans.

"By Thursday, Finance Ministers from Eurozone Countries must finally Approve the financing and support program for Greece," Venizelos said. "If That Does not happen, the Country Will Go bankrupt."

Greece's eurozone partners, Meanwhile, Kept up the pressure for real reform.  

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble WAS quoted as telling the Sunday newspaper Welt am Sonntag That Greece "Can not Be a bottomless pit."

Highlighting previous promised He Said Were not Kept, Schaeuble Said "that is why Greece's promised arent enough for us Any More."

Asked whether Greece HAS long-term future in the eurozone, Germany's Vice Chancellor Philip Roesler Said "that is now in the hands of the Greeks alone."

"It is not enough just to Give Financial Aid - They must tackle the second cause of the crisis, the LACK of Economic Competitiveness," Told Said ARD television. "For That, They need ... Structural Reforms mass. Otherwise Greece Will not get out of the crisis."

Introducing the legislation Sunday, Socialist lawmaker Said Sofia Yiannaka the intense pressure from Greece's EU partners to pass Measures the result of Was The delays in Implementing Reforms Already Agreed.

"The delays Have our imprint. We Should not Blame Foreigners for 'em, "she said." We Have finally found out That You Have to pay back what you borrowed Have. "

Leftist party and the small rightist LAOS - has junior coalition partner to form - Had vowed to vote against-the new austerity

. "You are not Trying to save Greece, a handful of Industrialists goal," Communist Party Spokesman Thanassis Pafilis said. "And Struggling disgracefully you blame the people Who created the wealth we have. You are Trying to send 'em back to the Middle Ages. We Will not allow it. "

___

Demetris Nellas in Athens and Geir Moulson in Berlin Contributed to this report

. Greek coalition expels

43

dissent Deputies on debt

Greece's grim choice: deep budget cuts or default

  

WASHINGTON - Why Would Greece accept more chômage When bread is at 21 percent, the economy is enduring icts fifth year of recession and rioters are hurling gasoline bombs in the streets of Athens?

Because the alternative Might Be Worse.

Greek leaders are gritting teeth Their move forward with As They plan has to slash further Top Spending in return for a bailout of about one billion from $ 172 Other countries in Europe and around the world. The Greek Parliament is scheduled to vote on the plan Sunday.

Greece is trapped in a lose-lose predicament: It must deepen year austerity plan Begun in 2010 That Will Throw Many More people out of work. But it must default on debts icts, Europe's single currency drop and see icts banking system implode.

"The choice we face is one of sacrifice or Even Greater sacrifice - we scale That Can not Be Compared," Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said.

Here is a closer look at Greece's Two bleak options:

Spending cuts deep _Impose in exchange for the bailout.

The pros:

Greece Needs the bailout to make a $ 19 one billion bond payment due March 20. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos Warned That "Would a disorderly default cast our country Into a catastrophic adventure."

Papademos Said Would help plan the lift Greece out of recession next year.

In addition to the $ 172 one billion bailout, Greece is Negotiating a Deal That Would Reduce the $ 270 one billion in private debt it Owes Creditors. Under That arrangement, a combination of primary and lower Reduced interest rates Greece Would save about 70 percent on debt payments.

Selling government-owned companies, professionals like architects Exposing and pharmacists to more competition and Imposing Other Reforms is Designed to make the economy more efficient in the long run.

Even with the austerity plan in place, the IMF Estimates it Will Be in 2020 by the time Greece Cdn icts debt load shrink to a sustainable level.

The cons:

Such austerity counterproductive Because it Can Be Cdn slow the economy and Reduce tax revenue.

The government acknowledges the austerity plan That Would cause Greece's economy to shrink 4 percent to 5 percent this year. Without it, the government expect the economy to Would contract just 2.8 percent. The plan includes Lowering the minimum wage by 22 percent and 15.000 Laying off government workers this year.

So far, austerity HAS done nothing to Reduce Greece's debt burden. Government debt as a centage of the Economy Grew Actually it Began After Imposing austerity - to Nearly 160 percent in the July-September quarter of 2011 from 139 percent a year Earlier.

"The Whole Plan Was a losing proposition," says Dimitri Papadimitriou, president of the Levy Economics Institute and professor at Bard College.

Austerity is Causing Widespread hardship and inflaming social tensions paydayloans. That worries Papdimitriou Greek society is "Disintegrating" under the strain: "Increasing Poverty has-been, homeless rats Have Been Increasing."

So Have crime and suicide.

_default And drop the euro.

The pros:

Defaulting on debt icts Would ease the immediate strain on Greece's finances and Probably cause it to abandon the euro, the currency Used by 17 countries.  

Dropping the euro Would leave Greece with a much cheaper currency, drachma Its Own. That Would juice Greece's economy by making products less expensive Greek Around the World. This Would Give Greek Exporters a competitive edge.

In the 1990s, Canada has weak currency Used to expand exports and grow icts way out of high government debts, says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. As long as it's shackled to the euro, Greece lacks That option.

Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, a think-Economic and Financial Will Eventually drive pressure Greece to drop the euro.

ET and think-That Would Be for the best.

"What is Worse for Europe - Have This matter to linger on and on, with European Citizens Having to continue to bail out Greece and Portugal? But to face the reality That Should not Have thesis Countries joined the euro in the first place?" Asks Baumohl.  

The cons:

Exiting the euro Would throw Greece's banking system Into Chaos. Lenders Would panic over the prospect of Being not repaid in euros purpose of dubious value in drachmas. Adopting a much Weaker currency Suddenly Could aussi Greek ignite inflation Because Prices of goods importé Would soar.

International investors reluctant to lend Would Be to Greece's government, ict companies or its banks. The freeze-up in credit Could cause a depression, what Greece Worse Than Is Suffering now. Economists at UBS estimate Greece's Economy That Would shrink by up to 50 percent if it left the eurozone.

The pain spread Likely Would aussi European banks have Absorbed Losses on Their loans to Greece. The worst-case scenario: A disaster akin to what Followed Lehman Brothers' collapse in September 2011. Banks Grew too fearful to lend to Each Other. Credit froze worldwide.  

Some economists Would like to see European Governments Produce a rescue package peers That Cuts and Reforms with government aid économique Designed to spur growth in Greece.

"When over 20 percent You have chômage, You Need to do something," Papadimitriou says.

He wants to offer something European Countries like the US rescued That year aid plan impoverished Europe After World War II.

"You Need something similar to the Marshall Plan," Papadimitriou says.

___

Rexrode Reported from New York. Associated Press Writer Derek Gatopoulos Contributed to this report from Athens.

Greece's grim choice: deep budget cuts or default

Oil below $ 100 amid signs of US Improving Economy

  

SINGAPORE - Oil Prices hovered below $ 100 a barrel Friday in Asia as Encouraging news about the economy WAS US tempered by European DEMANDS for Greece to make further Top Spending Cuts Before getting a new bailout.

Benchmark crude for March delivery down 29 cents at WAS $ 99.55 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $ 1.13 to settle at $ 99.84 on Thursday.

Brent crude down 50 cents at WAS $ 118.09 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.

Crude HAS bobbed around $ 100 for the Last Few months, buoyed by signs the economy is Improving US. On Thursday, the U. S. Reported That the number of Americans seeking behavior Unemployment Benefits Fell to near a four-year low last week, Suggesting the job market is Gaining strength.

"The energy market Appears Positioned for additional price gains we still have to look for work icts crude way up to the $ 101 area," energy consultant Ritterbusch and Associates Said in a report easy payday loans.

Oil Has Risen from $ 96 Earlier this month we Optimism Growing investor Greece may have chaotic AVOID debt default. Agreed to Greece on Thursday new Spending cuts and austerity Other Measures that Were Necessary to Receive International year bailout.

However, hours later, European Ministers Said Did not go far enough Greece and more cuts Demanded Within a week in exchange for a one billion euro 130 ($ 170 billion) bailout to stave off bankruptcy.

In Other energy trading, heating oil WAS steady at $ 3.21 per gallon and gasoline futures Fell 0.5 cent to $ 3.01 per gallon. Natural gas rose 0.1 cent to $ 2.48 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Oil below $ 100 amid signs of US Improving economy

Time Warner beats Street in 4Q earnings

  

NEW YORK - Time Warner says fourth-quarter earnings icts Grew Slightly've Jumped back 5 percent on strong performance at Warner Bros. icts. Movie Studio and Its cable television networks.

Net income WAS $ 773 million, or 76 cents per share, for the last Three months of 2011 Compared with $ 769 million, or 68 per share, a year Earlier. Adjusted for one-time items, the company Earned 94 cents per share. That beat Wall Street's expectations of 87 cents as Surveyed by FactSet payday advance online.

Revenue Grew to $ 8.2 billion, beating analysts' expectations for $ 8.06 trillion. The company benefited from Higher licensing revenue at Turner cable networks and ict from strong sales of home movies icts.

Time Warner Inc.. Says It Will raise aussi icts quarterly dividend by 11 percent to 26 cents per share, March 15 To Be Paid to Shareholders of record on Feb. 29.

Time Warner beats Street in 4Q earnings

Deeper Iran sanctions; US central bank targets icts

  

WASHINGTON - Targeting Iran's economy, the tough new penalties US Ordered Monday to pinch the country's further Top Financial System and encourages Israel to Give sanctions more time Before Any Action Against Iran's military nuclear program.

The new, stricter penalties, in autorisée That legislation President Obama signed in December, enforced Will Be Under an order signed only ET now. THEY Give Us New Powers banks to freeze assets linked to the Iranian government and close loopholes Officials say Iran HAS That Used To move money despite Earlier restrictions Imposed by the US and Europe.

The Action Against the Central Bank of Iran is more significant for timing Than ict icts immediate effect. It Comes as the United States and Its allies are arguing That tough sanctions Cdn still persuades Iran to back off what the West contends is a drive to build a nuclear bomb.

The U. S. and Europe want Iran to deprive it of the oil revenu Needs to run icts government and pay for the nuclear program. Purpose Many experts Believe Iran Will Be Able to find Other buyers outside Europe.

The European Union last month Announced It Would ban the import of Iranian crude oil starting in July. The US Does not buy Iranian oil, last month it aims Placed sanctions on Iran's banks to make it harder for the nation to sell crude. The US, however, HAS delayed Implementing Those sanctions for at least six months worried about Because It Is Sending Oil Prices Higher at A Time When The World Economy is Struggling. Iran exports about 3 percent of the world's oil

The faster and more painfully Sanctions Can Be seen to work, the better the box to shelve Any plan by Israel to bomb Iran, a pre-emptory move That Could ignite a new Mideast war. Taking this initial step Against the Central Bank, the first time the US Directly After That HAS gone major institution, is one way the Obama administration Cdn show momentum now.

Israel, Meanwhile, has-been increasingly open about Iran icts worry That Could Be on the Brink of a bomb by this summer and this spring That offers the last window to destroy bomb-related facilities. Many Israeli Officials Believe That Give time penalties only for Iran to move icts nuclear program underground, out of reach of Israeli military strikes.

White House Spokesman Jay Carney denied That Monday's unexpected announcement of new banking sanctions Was a sign of worry about Heightened year Israeli attack.

"There has-been a steady Increase in activity and our penalties this is hand Of That escalation, 'he said.

Said U. S. Carney Sanctions on Iran are squeezing Iran's economy Already Have and exacerbated tensions Within The Iranian leadership.

"There is no issue That the impact of the isolation on Iran and the sanctions on Iran économique Have Caused added turmoil Within Iran, 'he said.

Iran is the world's Third-largest export of crude oil, Giving Financial Resources icts leaders and leveraged to Withstand outside pressure payday advances. Last year, Iran generated $ 100 billion in revenue from oil, up from 20 USD one billion a decade ago, According To IHS CERA, an energy consulting firm.

If Iranian oil is prevented from getting to market, other, suppliers Could Make up the difference. The has-been pressuring US Other Middle East and African nations to step up production for sale to Europe. Saudi Arabia HAS Said It Could Increase production to make up for lost Any Iranian crude.

Iran's nuclear program Disputed Became a global concern More than five years ago, When the extents of the country's uranium enrichment research and Began To Be known. Since then a web of International Economic Sanctions and Other Have failed to stop Iran's Progress Toward a Point When It Could build one or more nuclear devices.

US Intelligence Agencies say Iran is close to Indeed Ability That goal HAS not yet Decided to go ahead. Iran says nuclear program is peaceful icts and denounces sanctions as aggression.

The new U. S. penalties Were unexpected now. Were the sanctions included in the amendment year have wide-ranging defense bill the President signed in late December, though how and When They Were To Be levied on Iran WAS unclear.

The White House Said It Would HAD calculated previously take months to Evaluate The Likely effect on the weak global economy Before Taking the next steps wide, Including new penalties on the Central Bank.

Now, US institutions are required to sixteen Iranian state assets They Come across, Rather Than Involved Rejecting the transaction.

The value of Iranian assets Affected by the new order Was Not clear. Iran Does Almost no direct business with the United States After Three Decades of enmity, goal icts money moves-through the World Financial System and Its oil is sold in dollars.  

In a letter to Congress, Obama Said Were Warranted more sanctions, "particularly in light of the deceptive practices of the Central Bank of Iran and Other Iranian banks."

He Cited hiding of the gold transactions of people and institutions Other loopholes.

In year interview with NBC Sunday, the US Said Obama has "a very good estimate" of When Iran Could nuclear weapon was complete, and ET spoke favorably of the effect of sanctions and diplomacy to resolve the impasse.

Obama Addressed the concern about Israel There Is Suggested goal still time.

"I do not think Israel Has Made a decision is What They Need to do," Obama said.

He fired, return not answer a question about whether Israel HAS Promised to notify the United States Before Any pre-emptory strike.

Republican presidential candidate Obama Have accusé of Being too timid in historical dealings with Iran, and while US Officials reject That characterization THEY acknowledge cautiously stepping They Are Because Of fear of upsetting the global economy.

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Associated Press writer Julie Pace Contributed to this postponement.

Deeper Iran sanctions; US central bank targets icts

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